Words like pictures

Złoto znajduje się w najniższym punkcie, gdy jest ważone w stosunku do Bitcoina. Z drugiej strony, kryptowaluta nie wykazuje żadnych oznak spowolnienia.

Cena Bitcoina nadal rośnie, a kryptowaluta przekracza granicę 50 000 dolarów. W tym samym czasie metal szlachetny, do którego jest najczęściej porównywany, złoto, znajduje się na najniższym poziomie w historii, gdy jest wyceniane w stosunku do BTC.

Złoto cierpi na tle Bitcoina

Bitcoin jest porównywany do wielu rzeczy, ale najczęściej jest porównywany ze złotem, jako że oba aktywa stanowią silny argument jako magazyn wartości.

Jednak w ciągu ostatniego roku, istnieje wyraźny zwycięzca między tymi dwoma, jako że stosunek złota do Bitcoina znajduje się obecnie na rekordowo niskim poziomie.

Jak widać na powyższym wykresie, stosunek ten stopniowo maleje od marca zeszłego roku. Wówczas wartość Bitcoina w Stanach Zjednoczonych spadła do rocznego minimum na poziomie około $3,800 w ogólnorynkowym krachu wywołanym w dużej mierze przez nadciągający kryzys związany z koronawirusem COVID-19.

Od tego czasu BTC idzie już tylko w górę, ponieważ kryptowaluta notuje oszałamiający wzrost o około 1250% od najniższych poziomów w marcu 2020 roku. Złoto, z drugiej strony, pozostaje w tyle. W momencie pisania tego tekstu, uncja złota kosztuje około 1780 dolarów, jako że metal szlachetny wydaje się być niezdolny do przebicia się powyżej pożądanego (dla tego rynku) poziomu 2000 dolarów, nie mówiąc już o gonieniu jakichkolwiek zysków zapewnianych przez Bitcoina.

Narracja o cyfrowym złocie rośnie w siłę

Podczas gdy oba aktywa wykazują silne właściwości bycia magazynem wartości, Bitcoin, w oczach wielu, ma przewagę. Oczywiście, warto zauważyć, że jest to kwestia czasu, ponieważ cyfrowa waluta jest szczególnie młoda w porównaniu do swojego fizycznego odpowiednika.

Jednak coraz więcej instytucji i prominentnych inwestorów przyjmuje narrację, że Bitcoin jest w istocie czymś w rodzaju cyfrowego złota, choć w rzeczywistości jest czymś znacznie więcej.

W zeszłym roku, legendarny inwestor Paul Tudor Jones powiedział, że Bitcoin jest najlepszym handlem inflacyjnym. Nie dalej jak wczoraj, prezes Banku Rezerwy Federalnej w St. Louis powiedział, że Bitcoin jest raczej rywalem złota niż walutą.

Biorąc pod uwagę wszystkie powyższe, warto nakreślić kilka głównych różnic między nimi, które korzystnie przechylają szalę na korzyść Bitcoina. Po pierwsze, jest łatwy w transporcie – możesz uzyskać dostęp do swoich bitcoinów dosłownie z każdego miejsca na świecie, tak długo jak masz dostęp do Internetu. Wyobraź sobie transport 10 KG złota. Teraz wyobraź sobie transport tony złota.

Bitcoin jest również stosunkowo łatwiejszy do przechowywania. Nie potrzebujesz wysoko zabezpieczonych skarbców lub bezpiecznych skrytek. Twoje bitcoins są bezpiecznie przechowywane w portfelu, i tak długo, jak klucze prywatne są twoje i nie narażone, nie masz się o co martwić.

Bitcoin jest cyfrowy, jest odporny na cenzurę, a także jest weryfikowalnie rzadki. Wszystko to prawdopodobnie przyniesie korzyści kryptowalucie w świecie, który zmierza w kierunku cyfryzacji szybciej niż możemy sobie wyobrazić.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says retail investors have rushed to buy bonds over the past decade.

He claimed earlier this month that 94% of retail client money went into bonds. Of the estimated $ 3.1 trillion in retail inflows since 2008, only $ 183 billion, or 6%, has gone into the stock market, Lee said.

That estimate is based on a survey by the research company, with Lee saying in a recent interview that it is now believed that more than $ 6 trillion in bond-to-stocks will be poured into stocks this decade.

This year, bonds in particular have seen huge inflows that broke records in the summer: In just one week, $ 22.5 billion flowed into US bond funds.

Inflows into bonds over the past five years

We’re seeing a huge jump in bonds for much of 2020, and overall they have increased significantly since January 2016.

„Investors have been liquidating stocks at an accelerated pace since 2017,“ Lee said – but that seems to be changing.

Equities have attracted significant investment, especially since November. That month, a record $ 81 billion was poured into stocks, bringing the total for the year to $ 196 billion.

By contrast, only $ 17 billion flowed into bonds in November, out of a still considerable total volume of $ 192 billion.

Stock inflows since the 1990s

The hope of a quick recovery due to the introduction of vaccines is causing a frenzy in the stock market, with small investors in particular buying up what they believe to be undervalued stocks in retail companies such as cinemas and game libraries.

The latter has in some ways become a sprawling narrative that risks losing the forest for the trees when it comes to GME – but it’s a very bombastic little part of a far bigger story that leads to rising optimism for an economic one Recovery condenses.

In addition, the millennials in particular tend to prefer to take investments into their own hands rather than put them in any index or fund.

This is partly because the indices have been accused of being too powerful and almost monopoly, so a turnaround was only a matter of time.

With many of these bond investments being made by fund managers on behalf of their retail clients, with improved access to the stock market, we could see a trend where retail investors are increasingly taking these investments into their own hands to hunt for returns that have been in at least since November Bitcoin (to buy bitcoins with instant transfer instructions ) and stocks lie.

I tori Bitcoin hanno annientato la resistenza di 28.500 dollari con un’impennata di volumi elevati, ma il livello di 30.000 dollari potrebbe comunque rappresentare una sfida.

Nell’ultima ora, il prezzo del Bitcoin (BTC) ha raggiunto un nuovo massimo storico di 29.000 dollari.

Il 29 dicembre, il prezzo del Bitcoin ha tentato di spingere attraverso un rigido gruppo di resistenza a 28.500 dollari, ma dopo il rally a 28.600 dollari, il prezzo ha rifiutato con una brusca correzione a 27.300 dollari.

Molti commercianti al dettaglio si aspettano che il prezzo Bitcoin Up salga ben al di sopra dei $30.000 una volta superata la barriera psicologica, ma Nunya Bizniz, un popolare trader su Twitter, ha sottolineato che al di sopra dei $30.000, il prezzo Bitcoin comincia a sembrare un po‘ troppo alto, dato che il ritracciamento di Fibonacci 1,618 è a $30.196.

Il passaggio a 29.000 dollari di oggi è avvenuto dopo un’impennata di volumi elevati che ha spinto la resistenza di 28.500 dollari, ma la battaglia per 30.000 dollari è tutt’altro che finita.

I dati degli Indicatori materiali mostrano che ci sono ancora muri di vendita vicino al livello di 30.000 dollari a Binance e ad altri importanti scambi di criptovalute.
BTC/USD vendono muri vicino ai 30.000 dollari.

A meno che non si verifichi un altro aumento sostenuto del volume degli acquisti, la presenza di muri di vendita suggerisce che un rally a 30.000 dollari potrebbe innescare un forte sell-off e indurre il prezzo di BTC a rivisitare i principali supporti sottostanti a 28.000 dollari e 27.300 dollari, dove la media mobile a 20 giorni risiede attualmente nell’arco di 4 ore.

30.000 dollari e poi la luna?

Dato che il prezzo del Bitcoin è salito del 64,9% dall’inizio di dicembre, il raggiungimento del livello 1,618 Fib potrebbe fornire il segnale di un pull-back, ma in definitiva il volume sarà il principale indicatore di dove potrebbe andare il prezzo.

Attualmente, il prezzo Bitcoin ha guadagnato il 302,6% per l’anno e sta superando di gran lunga l’oro e i mercati tradizionali come il Dow e l’S&P500. Per il 4° trimestre, BTC ha guadagnato il 168,32%, assicurandosi la seconda migliore performance trimestrale dal 2017, quando l’asset digitale ha guadagnato il 210,13% nel 4° trimestre.

In een recent interview legde Charles Cascarilla , medeoprichter en CEO van FinTech-firma Paxos , uit waarom hij denkt dat „het hebben van een kleine toewijzing van Bitcoin iets is dat bijna iedereen zou moeten hebben.“

In een interview met CNBC-anker Kelly Evans , op donderdag (17 december), werd Cascarilla eerst door Evans gevraagd of mensen wier pensioenfondsen in Bitcoin hebben geïnvesteerd zich op hun gemak zouden moeten voelen.

Hij antwoorde:

“Ik denk dat het hebben van een kleine toewijzing van Bitcoin iets is dat bijna iedereen zou moeten hebben … maar tegelijkertijd beschouwt het het als een call-optie.

“Het punt van het bezitten van goud is dat je een winkel met waarde wilt hebben. Het punt van het bezitten van Bitcoin is dat het goud kan worden, en dus weten we niet precies of dat gaat gebeuren. Misschien niet, maar aan de andere kant bestaat het nu al 12 jaar.

“Het heeft veel onrust meegemaakt, veel tests. Het is het beste voorbeeld dat we hebben van digitaal goud en wat we via Covid hebben gezien, is dat het leven van mensen steeds meer digitaal wordt – ze zijn online; ze hebben een digitale waarde nodig.

“En net zo belangrijk: iedereen heeft gezien wat er aan de hand is met de balans van de Federal Reserve, en mensen zoeken naar manieren om hun bezittingen te beschermen. En dus is Bitcoin een voorbeeld van een manier om dat te doen. “

Evans was het eens met de CEO van Paxos en wat ze zei in haar antwoord op zijn opmerkingen was best interessant:

“Absoluut, Charles, al vind ik het interessant dat het in sommige opzichten simpelweg de kuddementaliteit is, waarbij mensen beseffen ‚oké, er zullen er 21 miljoen zijn‘.

“Bill Miller maakte dit geweldige punt: hij zei dat er 47 miljoen miljonairs in de wereld zijn, en dat er maar 21 miljoen bitcoins zullen zijn … als elke miljonair op de planeet er maar een wilde, konden ze het niet krijgen – er is niet genoeg. Dus, weet je, het is gewoon een kudde-ding, waar iedereen zich realiseert ‚oh oké, dit wordt het ding om te bezitten en dus we kunnen het allemaal beter bezitten‘, en vanuit dat oogpunt is de sky the limit, niet het?“

Cascarilla antwoordde:

“Dat is zeker een manier waarop de prijs omhoog gaat; je krijgt veel mensen die iets kopen dat een eindig bedrag heeft, maar aan de andere kant is er een fundamentele relevantie voor wat hier gebeurt, namelijk dat er behoefte is aan een winkelwaarde. Er is behoefte aan een puur digitale winkelwaarde, en dat is waar Bitcoin voor staat. „

Marc Friedrich is a financial expert, multiple bestselling author, sought-after speaker, thought leader and free spirit.

His latest book, „The Biggest Crash of All Time,“ is SPIEGEL’s number one bestseller, „The Biggest Crash of All Time.“ Many of his forecasts have come true. With his fee-based consultancy Friedrich Vermögenssicherung GmbH, he advises private individuals and companies on Bitcoin Trader and other cryptocurrencies.

„I expect a new all-time high before Christmas and new highs in 2021 – prices in six figures by the end of 2022!“

So I had finished this article in early December and then left it for various reasons. Now my forecast has actually been exceeded. Why the Bitcoin has risen so strongly and why we will soon see new highs, you will learn in the following lines.

Inflation is coming – central banks must keep printing

Since the near-death experience of the monetary and financial system in 2008, we have been in a state of financial emergency. Triggered by greed, speculation and hubris, central banks have enforced unprecedented, historic measures worldwide. Interest rates have been cut to record levels, and in some cases are already in negative territory. At the same time, the money floodgates were opened and the markets were permanently supplied with cheap liquidity. A veritable tsunami of money, leading to ever larger asset bubbles, for example in real estate or stocks. Almost 18 trillion U.S. dollars of all government bonds currently have negative interest rates, as a chart from Bloomberg shows.

Bloomberg chart on the total volume of all government bonds worldwide.

Central banks around the world are in a precarious position: the U.S. Federal Reserve, for example. It now has a staggering $7.2 trillion on its books. That corresponds to 36 percent of the GDP of the world’s largest economy. The European colleagues at the central bank in Frankfurt are also in no way inferior to the USA. Here, too, the chart rises parabolically. The ECB already has 6.83 trillion euros, or 68% of the eurozone’s GDP, on its books.

At the same time, public debt around the world is soaring to new heights. 277 trillion US dollars is the total debt worldwide. That is 350 percent of the world’s GDP. The U.S. alone is $27.3 trillion in the red, 128 percent of its own GDP.

For these reasons, central banks can no longer raise interest rates in the existing monetary system, otherwise bankrupt countries would go bankrupt, businesses would fold, economies would be stalled, investment bubbles would burst, and unemployment rates and debt would explode. For this reason, the destructive downward spiral of interest rate cuts and money printing will have to continue. Until the bitter and very expensive end. Because the collateral damage is becoming more and more devastating and expensive. Not only monetarily but also politically, economically and socially.

Against this rampant debt-making and money printing without interest and reason, investors and savers need values limited by nature or by mathematics to protect their purchasing power. One of these is Bitcoin.

Big money comes and discovers Bitcoin

The technology company „MicroStrategy“, listed on the US stock exchange Nasdaq, announced that they had invested a proud $250 million of their $500 million cash reserve in Bitcoin. The rationale was: as a hedge against inflation and a store of value against the constant printing of money by central banks. Just one month later, they went one better by putting another 175 million dollars into Bitcoin. Average price 11,111 dollars. Most recently, they even invested another $50 million in Bitcoin at a price of $19,400. As a last coup, 0.75 percent corporate bonds were collected for 400 million dollars. The financial company plans to reinvest these entirely in Bitcoin. MicroStrategy’s stock is thus the best and cheapest ETF on Bitcoin.

Another example is provided by „Square“. Twitter founder Jack Dorsey’s FinTech company invested $50 million in Bitcoin. U.S. insurer MassMutual’s recently announced $100 million investment in Bitcoin is contributing to the cryptocurrency’s mass adoption, as is PayPal’s announcement that it will be able to trade and pay for Bitcoin via its payment platform.

Even more weighty are the opinions of various hedge fund legends such as Paul Tudor Jones, Bill Miller and Stanley Druckenmiller, who have recently spoken positively about Bitcoin, and this after years of railing against it. The CIO of BlackRock also joined in.

Many former arch-enemies of the digital currency have jumped on the Bitcoin bandwagon and have since been positive. This is probably also due to pressure from customers, after Bitcoin returned to the market this year with a performance of over 200 percent.

With the blockchain platform Wecan Comply, the Swiss private bank Gonet supports a project that aims to simplify the interaction between banks and external asset managers using blockchain technology.

The Swiss private bank Gonet & Cie from Geneva is joining the blockchain platform Wecan Comply for digital interaction between banks and external asset managers, according to a statement from the bank on December 7th.

The advantages of digital communication at a glance

It is convinced that „the targeted use of new technologies will be a key factor in developing relationships between financial institutions and their customers,“ writes Gonet & Cie, adding:

“As a private bank on a human scale, we are very close to our EAM partners and their needs. It is therefore important for us to support them with an innovative digital solution that aims to optimize compliance processes via blockchain functions with promising potential. „

The Wecan Comply platform, launched last October, aims to simplify the interaction between banks and external asset managers using blockchain technology.

As you can find out on the Wecan Comply website , the project aims to replace paper-based communication and the exchange of important documents such as compliance data with a digital blockchain alternative.

In addition to Gonet & Cie, over a dozen players from the financial sector are already participating in the project, including the private banks Pictet, Edmond de Rothschild and Hyposwiss, as well as the asset manager Pleion.

Blockchain document management as a cost reducer

The realization that blockchain technology can reduce costs through less administration and paperwork is gaining ground. The US company Kodak presented a blockchain platform for document management back in 2019 . The online retailer Amazon filed a patent in May for a blockchain system that is supposed to track the movement of goods along the supply chain.

Bitcoin has seen a sharp rebound in institutional interest in recent months.

The coin is currently trading just short of an all-time high of $ 19,500. BTC is expected to rise even higher as the prevalence continues to expand.

Paul Tudor Jones has now publicly blessed Bitcoin again.

Jones believes that BTC’s market cap is undervalued compared to other asset classes.

Paul Tudor Jones speaks out in favor of Bitcoin again

Bitcoin has seen a sharp rebound in institutional interest in recent months. The coin is currently trading just short of an all-time high of $ 19,500. BTC is expected to rise even higher as the prevalence continues to expand.

Paul Tudor Jones, a billion dollar Wall Street investor, could accelerate the adaptation even further – because he continues to speak out in public for Bitcoin .

The famous investor considers Bitcoin to be an extremely profitable investment in this world of macroeconomic inflation. Bitcoin will be the „fastest horse in the race“ when it comes to large asset classes such as stocks, commodities and bonds.

Now he has again emphasized his support for Bitcoin and stated in an interview that the market capitalization of the coin is severely undervalued when looking at macroeconomic trends:

„With a market cap of $ 500 billion, it’s the wrong market cap in a world with $ 90 trillion in equity and who knows how many trillion fiat currency … it’s the wrong price for the opportunities it has.“

Tudor Jones also believes that investing in Bitcoin is like investing in Google or Apple at the beginning of their life. He also compares the current Bitcoin space with the technology space in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Additional support from Wall Street

Tudor Jones‘ positive comments about Bitcoin follow increased engagement from Wall Street investors.

Stanley Printmiller, one of Tudor Jones‘ competitors and another multi-billion dollar financier, told CNBC a few weeks ago:

“Bitcoin could be an asset class that is very attractive as a store of value to both millennials and West Coast new money, and as you know, they have a lot of them. It’s been around for 13 years, and every day it’s becoming more stable as a brand. “

Many think Wall Street interest will drive Bitcoin well beyond current prices, into the $ 100,000 region and beyond.

For example, Raoul Pal of Real Vision believes that the cryptocurrency could reach $ 500,000 in the coming years due to this institutional support alone.

Hos IOTA er der ingen sten, der bliver vendt om

På den lange vej til det længte efter koordineringsmiddel annoncerer IOTA nogle midlertidige succeser og bevæger sig gradvist ind i den næste Chrysalis-fase.

Næppe nogen begivenhed i kryptosektoren forventes med så meget spænding som koordinationsmidlet, dvs. den endelige nedlukning af den centrale myndighed i IOTA-netværket. Der kan gå et par måneder, før Bitcoin Trader koordinatoren trækker vejret ud, og IOTA bevæger sig ind i den næste livscyklus. Hovedudviklerne Dominik Schiener og David Sønstebø sagde i et interview, at Koordicidet kan forventes i løbet af det kommende år. Men projektet har allerede bestået nogle vigtige milepæle, og så kommer den længe ventede dato tættere og tættere på.
IOTA-identitet

Den rigtige kryptoportefølje til enhver investor

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Få mere at vide i det førende magasin for blockchain og digitale valutaer, trykte og digitale
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Gratis belønninger kun så længe lager haves.

IOTA Foundation har annonceret alfa-frigivelsen af ​​IOTA Identity. Rammen er beregnet til at blive en standard for decentrale identiteter og har derfor en nøglefunktion i IOTA-netværket, hvor maskiner i fremtiden kommunikerer med hinanden og er i permanent dataudveksling.

Med IOTA Identity tager vi et vigtigt skridt på vej til introduktionen af ​​IOTA og DID på grund af den unikke evne til at betale og identificere i en og samme gratis protokol.

Den aktuelle alfa-version er stadig en foreløbig version og indeholder ikke alle funktioner. I de kommende uger skal rammen dog udvides og overføres til en fuld version 1.0.
Chrysalis overgang

Overgangen til den næste Chrysalis-fase bliver også gradvist tydelig. Chrysalis er forbindelsen mellem den nuværende og fremtidige IOTA 2.0-version. Udviklingen er opdelt i tre sektioner. Ifølge blogindlægget forbereder udviklerne i øjeblikket det sidste afsnit, Chrysalis 2.0.

Vi har allerede et testnet med fungerende Hornet- og Bee-Node-implementeringer, som vi er ved at færdiggøre den nye API-node og teste de nye klientbiblioteker med.

I de næste par uger skal testnet også være tilgængeligt for offentligheden. Til dette formål skal alle vigtige integrationer afsluttes i december. I begyndelsen af ​​næste år vil den nye Chrysalis mainnet endelig gå i drift.

Bitcoin’s price is about to have the biggest monthly close in its history, but the highs must be above USD 14,000 to reach a new all-time high.

The Bitcoin price (BTC) is certainly having an impressive year after falling to USD 3,700 in mid-March, and then reaching USD 14,000 in the following months. The BTC price has now reached its highest point since January 2018, as the price reached USD 14,100.

The likelihood of a further upward cycle therefore increases considerably as the price of Bitcoin continues to reach new higher highs and lower lows. Moreover, the strength is seen even as the DXY index, with which it usually has an inverse correlation, is also recovering amidst the uncertainties of the coronavirus.

Bitcoin has yet to break out of the USD 13,700 to USD 14,250 area

The weekly chart shows some critical levels that must be observed to continue the upward momentum. One of these is the current resistance zone around the USD 14,000 threshold. Breaking out of this resistance zone would give greater strength towards the next threshold of around USD 16,500 to USD 17,000.

These two levels are the last hurdles before seeing a possible new historical high, while most altcoins are still experiencing large losses compared to their 2017 highs.

There are two crucial levels to watch out for on the downside. The first and main switch is the area from USD 11,400 to USD 11,800. This has been the crucial resistance zone for two years which means that it could be tested again before the price rises further.

However, if that area is lost, the next support zone is between USD 10,100 and USD 10,400.

The highest monthly close is possible for Bitcoin

As we can see from the monthly graph, the highest monthly closure is possible for Crypto Superstar Bitcoin, an incredible achievement 12 years after the launch of its whitepaper.

However, it also shows the importance of this resistance zone, as it is the last major obstacle before the historical high can be reached.

If the USD 13,700 to USD 14,200 zone is passed, continuation to new historical highs is almost guaranteed as there are not many levels in between.

However, the beginning of a new upward cycle is often accompanied by periods of accumulation, through which previous resistance zones are retested and confirmed as support. Such a build-up period would mean that the Bitcoin price could fall to USD 11,600 to find sufficient support before a sharp upward movement.

Current market behaviour is comparable to the 2016 cycle

The 2016 graph shows these accumulation ranges through which a healthy trend was established. All previous resistance levels were re-tested for confirmation, after which a range for accumulating Bitcoin was established.

After a limited range construction, compression began to build up, eventually resulting in a large breakthrough.

Another positive sign is the rapid purchases during market corrections. These are shown with long fuses while buyers rush in to buy when the price drops. A similar movement may occur if the market corrects in the coming weeks.

Possible scenario for the Bitcoin price

The current area of USD 11,400 to USD 11,800 is a very important resistance zone. If the Bitcoin price falls out of this resistance zone, a correction will become the possible scenario for the pair.

Therefore, the possible scenario for Bitcoin is a stock with a limited range between USD 11,400 and USD 14,200.

Ether and other altcoins may appear on the scene when Bitcoin finishes its correction and begins building a lateral range. It will probably take a few more months before the altcoins can begin to move upwards.

Il prezzo di Bitcoin ha visto un calo del 4% nelle ultime 24 ore, ma è improbabile che si veda una correzione come nei cicli precedenti per tre motivi.

Il prezzo del Bitcoin Trader è aumentato del 36% negli ultimi 35 giorni, mostrando un forte rally. Il sentimento del mercato è stato ottimistico a causa della crescente domanda istituzionale e della percezione di BTC come una copertura dell’inflazione.

Ma dopo una forte tendenza al rialzo, la convinzione che BTC possa tirarsi indietro ha cominciato a crescere. Mentre una piccola correzione potrebbe verificarsi, come il viaggio al ribasso del 4% a poco meno di 13.000 dollari il 28 ottobre, una tendenza al ribasso considerevole sta diventando sempre più improbabile. Bitcoin era a 13.860 dollari al picco della giornata, che ha segnato la vetta del rally di luglio 2019.

Dopo aver colpito una tale area di resistenza, ci si aspetta un piccolo ritiro. Dopo un calo a meno di 13.000 dollari, BTC ha rapidamente recuperato a 13.150 dollari, dimostrando una buona resistenza. Se seguirà uno schema simile, il prezzo del Bitcoin raggiungerà probabilmente i 20.000 dollari nel marzo 2021, ha detto un analista conosciuto come Ceteris Paribus.

„Per far sì che il prezzo del Bitcoin corrisponda al tempo dell’ultimo ciclo di recupero, dovrebbe raggiungere i 20.000 dollari l’11 marzo 2021. Sarebbe poetico che accadesse un anno dopo (probabilmente) il giorno più infame della storia del bitcoin“.

In quanto tale, gli analisti anticipano la strada a 20.000 dollari a medio termine da affrontare con ostacoli e piccole correzioni. Ma tre ragioni potrebbero impedire al Bitcoin di vedere un grande passo indietro nel prossimo futuro.

Un minor afflusso di scambi, un rally di scale e una tendenza all’ascesa a macchia d’olio

Durante un ciclo di tori, la più grande minaccia ad una tendenza al rialzo è una potenziale svendita da parte di allevatori e balene di lunga data. Prima che la svendita avvenga, alcuni indicatori a catena potrebbero mostrare l’intenzione di vendere. L’indicatore più utilizzato per misurare l’attività del venditore è l’afflusso di scambi.

Senza una forte pressione di vendita da parte delle balene in borsa, i trader di derivati hanno spiegato che il rally in corso è guidato da spot, non da futures. Questa differenziazione è fondamentale perché quando un rally è alimentato principalmente dal mercato dei futures, potrebbe aumentare la probabilità di un rapido ritiro. La ragione alla base di questa tendenza è la possibilità di liquidazioni a cascata.

In una borsa dei futures Bitcoin, i trader di criptovaluta collocano posizioni corte o lunghe con leva finanziaria. Ma questo indica anche che se BTC scende del 10%, la posizione verrebbe liquidata e il trader perderebbe il capitale di base di $10.000. Quando il mercato dei futures guida il rally e una piccola goccia fa tremare i trader, potrebbe causare una cascata di contratti futures lunghi, causando il crollo del mercato.

Il recente rally, tuttavia, ha visto una domanda significativa da parte dei mercati spot e istituzionali. „Light“, un trader di derivati Bitcoin, pseudonimo di Bitcoin, ha detto:

„La struttura del mercato è distribuita senza che lo scambio monopolizzi la scoperta del prezzo. spot è leader dei derivati. fate di questo quello che volete“.

Il continuo aumento del volume di trading di LMAX Digital, Coinbase, Bakkt e Binance dimostra il predominio del mercato spot nella recente tendenza al rialzo. Infine, il rally delle scale di Bitcoin sostiene l’argomento che un grande calo dei prezzi è diventato meno probabile.

Nel dicembre 2017, il Bitcoin è crollato dopo aver raggiunto i 20.000 dollari perché la tendenza al rialzo si è verificata in un breve periodo, quindi non c’è stato abbastanza tempo per stabilire i livelli di supporto e resistenza. Questa volta, BTC sta salendo una scala, consolidandosi dopo ogni rally. Un tale schema tecnico rafforza la tendenza al rialzo ed eleva lo slancio generale.

Potenziali ragioni per una tendenza al ribasso di Bitcoin

Tuttavia, ci sono due ragioni chiave per cui i trader prevedono un calo di Bitcoin a breve termine. In primo luogo, l’indice del dollaro statunitense (DXY) è in rimbalzo. Poiché i negozi di valore alternativi, tra cui l’oro e il Bitcoin, sono quotati rispetto al dollaro, il recupero del DXY potrebbe influenzare negativamente BTC. In secondo luogo, il sentimento del mercato Bitcoin sta dimostrando l’eccitazione a livello FOMO – la paura di perdersi – che solleva preoccupazioni di un rally surriscaldato.

I trader Bitcoin Michael van de Poppe e Nick Cote hanno entrambi sottolineato che l’aumento del DXY potrebbe essere un problema per BTC nel prossimo futuro. Van de Poppe, trader a tempo pieno alla Borsa di Amsterdam e collaboratore del Cointelegraph, ha dichiarato che 12.700 dollari rimangono un potenziale obiettivo se il DXY continua a salire:

„Ripercorri qui su $BTC, mentre $DXY sta spingendo verso l’alto, visti i timori di una pandemia di coronavirus che lo circonda. Per evitare deviazioni al di sopra del range alto, $13.250-13.325 deve tenere per il supporto. Se questo si rompe, 12.700 dollari sembrano essere i prossimi“.

I ricercatori di Santiment hanno anche sottolineato che lo „stato d’animo sociale“ del mercato Bitcoin è aumentato rapidamente. Segnando un fattore positivo a lungo termine, nel prossimo futuro aumenta le possibilità di un rally surriscaldato. Se così fosse, il mercato dei derivati potrebbe iniziare a diventare sovraffollato e le balene potrebbero pensare di trarre profitto dalle loro posizioni:

„Anche il volume sociale complessivo è in aumento, il che indica livelli di FOMO più alti del normale“.